Olivia MillerThe Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers play Game 4 of the 2026 National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on Thursday 15 October (US time), which lands in the middle of Friday for Australian fans. With a possible Game 5 on 16 October and a return to Milwaukee on 18 and 19 October, the series is built around one thing: pitchers throwing at speeds that would have been unthinkable a generation ago. For the thousands of Australian kids and club players who copy what they see on screen, that raises a practical question about their own arms.
Why is everyone suddenly talking about pitchers' arms?
Milwaukee finished the regular season with baseball's best record and holds home-field advantage, while the Dodgers are chasing a third straight championship after winning in 2024 and 2025. According to Fox News and Bleacher Nation previews, the series opened at American Family Field on Sunday 11 October, with Game 3 and Game 4 moving to Los Angeles on 14 and 15 October. Bookmakers and prediction markets leaned towards the Dodgers heading in.
The talking point beyond the scoreboard is velocity. In Game 3 of last year's NLCS, on 16 October 2025, Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski averaged 101.3 mph, about 2 mph above his season average, and touched 102.5 mph, according to game coverage. In the sixth inning his fastball dropped to 98 to 99 mph, and the Dodgers scored two runs. A velocity drop mid-game is exactly what sports physicians watch for, because fatigue changes how the elbow and shoulder share the load.
What does the research say about speed and elbow injuries?
The elbow ligament that keeps a pitcher's arm together, the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), is the one repaired in "Tommy John" surgery. A 2025 study in the journal Arthroscopy, using Baseball Savant pitch data and summarised by UAB Medicine, found that each 1 mph increase in average sinker velocity was linked to roughly 30 per cent higher odds of needing UCL reconstruction. The same work linked higher velocity, spin and movement on other pitches, including sliders and curveballs, to higher risk.
A separate case-control study of MLB pitchers from 2018 to 2023 found that pitchers who needed UCL surgery threw harder and used fewer fastballs than matched peers. UAB Medicine's summary also reports that around 35 per cent of MLB pitchers now have a history of the surgery, up from about a quarter in 2015. That figure is secondary reporting, so treat it as indicative rather than exact.
None of this means hard throwing is reckless in a mature, well-conditioned professional. It does mean that the same habits fans admire on screen, such as max effort, extra spin and constant velocity chasing, carry a measurable cost when copied by a growing teenager.
Does this matter in Australia?
Yes. Baseball is a summer sport here, so many young Australian pitchers are about to ramp up their throwing workload just as the NLCS fills their feeds. Adolescent throwers also have growth plates in the elbow that are weaker than the ligament around them, so injury patterns differ from the pros the kids are imitating.
The Australian Government's Healthdirect service lists persistent pain, swelling and reduced range of motion after repetitive sport as reasons to get an assessment rather than "play through it". Its sports injuries guide is a sensible starting point before booking a specialist.
Real-world scenario: a 15-year-old pitcher in Sydney
Consider Liam, 15, who pitches for a Sydney club. On Saturday he throws 82 pitches in a tight game. Under the widely used MLB and USA Baseball Pitch Smart guidelines for ages 15 to 16, a daily maximum is 95 pitches, and a day of 76 or more pitches calls for four days of rest. So Liam should not throw in a game or intense bullpen until Wednesday.
Now add the NLCS effect. Liam watches the series, decides he wants to sit at 5 mph faster than last season, and adds weighted-ball drills. Applying the sinker study's roughly 30 per cent odds figure per mph in a very simplified way, a 5 mph gain would not be a small tweak: the compounded odds would be around 3.7 times higher (1.3 to the power of 5). That is an illustration of the direction of risk, not a personal prediction, because the study looked at professionals and one pitch type.
If Liam feels soreness on the inside of the elbow the morning after throwing 82 pitches, the plan should be: stop throwing, book a sports physician or physiotherapist assessment within a week, and only return after a graded program. If he ignores it and throws on Monday with fatigue, he is doing exactly what the velocity-drop in the sixth inning of last year's Game 3 illustrates, but without the pros' medical staff. A pain-free week of rest costs seven days. A ligament tear can cost twelve months or more of recovery.
Why fatigue is the hidden risk factor
Velocity gets the headlines, but fatigue is what most often turns a sore arm into a structural injury. When the big muscles of the legs, hips and trunk tire, the elbow and shoulder absorb forces they were not designed to take. That is why a drop of two or three mph late in an outing, like the one reported in Game 3 last October, is treated as a warning sign and not just a scouting note.
For junior players the same logic applies in a different form. A teenager who pitches for a school team on Tuesday, a club on Saturday and then throws in a batting cage on Sunday is accumulating load across three environments, and nobody is adding it up. Our earlier coverage of MLB's elbow injury crisis explains how professional teams track that load, and the same principle can be applied with a notebook and a phone.
Contact and collision injuries are a separate issue, and our guide on what Australian sports fans should know about concussion covers the signs to watch for in other sports.
What should Australian players and parents do now?
- Count pitches, including practice. Keep a simple log of throws per day and per week, including backyard play and training, not just matches.
- Respect rest days. Rest after high-pitch days is not optional, and a rest day means no throwing at all.
- Chase command before speed. Velocity gains should come from strength, mobility and mechanics under qualified coaching, not from maximal effort every throw.
- Avoid year-round pitching. Taking at least a few months off from overhead throwing each year is recommended by sports medicine bodies.
- Report pain early. Fatigue, loss of control or a sudden drop in speed are warning signs, much like the mid-game dip seen at the top level.
When to see a specialist
See a sports physician, orthopaedic surgeon or experienced physiotherapist if any of the following lasts more than a few days: pain on the inner elbow, a "pop" sensation when throwing, numbness or tingling in the ring and little fingers, or noticeable loss of velocity without explanation. An early diagnosis often means a rehabilitation program rather than surgery.
You can speak to a verified health professional through Expert Zoom, where sports medicine specialists and physiotherapists can assess an arm workload plan before the summer season gets underway.
This article is general information, not medical advice. Always consult a qualified health professional about your own or your child's injury.
